大数据管理与优化系列论坛:葛倩茹

时间:2020-12-21  阅读量:1683次

大数据管理与优化系列论坛:葛倩茹

报告题目:Optimal Redesign Decisions through Failure Rate Estimates

报告时间:20201222日(周二)下午2:30-4:00

报告平台:腾讯会议(ID458 546 058

主办单位:管理科学与工程学院大数据管理与优化研究中心

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【报告人简介】

葛倩茹博士,东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院讲师博士期间在荷兰埃因霍温理工大学进行通过在产品设计阶段优化产品可靠性从而使产品生命周期成本最小方面的研究。博士毕业之后任职于顺丰科技,做运筹优化算法设计方面的工作,历经项目包括仓管排班,库位优化,中转场运输等。科研成果发表于NRL等国际运筹学期刊。

 

 

【报告摘要】

To reduce the time-to-market of newly developed systems, manufacturers increasingly adopt strategies where systems are brought to market while system field reliability is still uncertain. These systems are typically sold under performance-based contracts, which incentivizes potential customers to invest in them despite reliability uncertainty. Such contracts make the manufacturer (partly) responsible for the availability of the system. Subsequently, when field reliability is lower than anticipated, the manufacturer may choose to redesign the system to avoid high contract penalties. Redesign is a costly effort which may substantially increase field reliability. Deciding when to redesign is challenging, especially because the initial failure rate estimate by the system’s engineers is refined over time as failure data accrues. We propose a model that endogenizes the failure rate updating to analyze this tactical redesign decision. We study additive and multiplicative redesigns and show that the optimal policy has a control limit structure. We benchmark our optimal policy against a static counterpart numerically,  and conclude that basing redesign decisions on the updated estimate of the failure rate can substantially reduce costs.

 

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